Monday, September 28, 2009
Hezbollah "Spotlights in the Ring"
Iran, in recent days has informed the United Nations of the development of a new uranium enrichment plant in the city of Qom, amidst rising tension and threats of sanctions from the West. Two days before the security council is to meet with Iranian officals, word of the firing of two new rockets capable of travelling 2000 kms, hits the headlines of Israeli and World dailies. Hezbollah, Irans so called proxy militia, with dual loyalty, one nationalistic towards fellow Lebanese and the other Religious towards Shiite Iran, will have to walk a tightrope. Hassan Nasrallah will take steam on what stance to take if Iran is attacked by Israel or the U.S. Two possibilities are conceivable, a premptive strike on Tel Aviv from long range Hezbollah rockets, which will draw the whole of Lebanon into a destructive war, and further isolate a crippled Hezbollah from the demographic fabric of Lebanon. The second possibility would be to not get involved whatsoever, and win the support and backing of their brothern Lebanese by remaining neutral. Such a position would dissappoint and frustrate the Iranian leadership, and be regarded as a U.S backed decision with the support of a Syrian guarantee in keeping Hezbollah on the sidelines. Iran would be in isolation, with increased regional pressure into abandoning its nuclear ambitions and face mounting U.N sanctions. Hezbollah on the other hand would save face internally, and gain needed points with the West, the United Nations and world community as a whole. The issue of their weapons would be further postponed and their involvement in forming a cabinet in the Lebanese government this round would be viewed upon by the west as fundamental. Syria in turn, would improve bilateral relations with the U.S, and gain a wild card in pressing Israel to return the Golan Heights and resume peace talks under no pre conditions. Hezbollah once again will find themselves in a tight ring with spotlights glaring down on what decision to take. Lets hope this time around they take a calculated initiative and not an 'adventurous' move similar to 2006 which paralyzed Lebanon and threw the country into an impasse. The Party of God, will be in for some party, facing extreme internal and external pressure by trying to preserve their clinching victory against Israel on one hand, not betraying Iran, and taking a more nationalistic approach that would gain the respect of their fellow patrons in the streets of Beirut and not Tehran.
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